How to build resilience into your farming system. 

Farming conditions in the UK are becoming more variable. While there may be opportunities from improved growing conditions in some seasons, these are increasingly offset by extremes such as drought, flooding and unpredictable weather patterns.

In this Tramlines podcast episode, we explore what resilience means in practice and how farm businesses can adapt. The discussion brings together climate science and practical agronomy to help inform decision-making on farm.

Leading the discussion is Dr Mike Rivington of the James Hutton Institute and Andrew Richards, Senior Agronomist at Agrii.

Podcast Summary:

• What future climate conditions could look like for UK farming, and why variability matters more than averages
• The practical impact of drought, flooding and seasonal extremes on crop performance
• How soil structure and organic matter underpin water management and resilience
• Where investment decisions, such as drainage, can influence yield and long-term returns
• How to approach crop and variety choice in less predictable conditions
• The role of modelling and data in supporting better on-farm decisions
• Why resilience is as much about business and mindset as it is about agronomy

What does climate change look like on farm?

Climate modelling suggests that UK farming may benefit from periods of favourable growing conditions. However, these are likely to be accompanied by greater extremes.

This includes:

• More frequent drought periods
• Increased risk of flooding
• Greater seasonal variability
• Higher temperatures driving increased evaporation

Rather than planning for an “average” season, the challenge for farm businesses is managing variation and uncertainty.

Why variability is the real challenge

Recent seasons have already highlighted the scale of the issue. Wet autumns followed by dry springs have created difficult establishment conditions and reduced yield potential.

This variability makes planning more difficult, particularly where key crop growth stages coincide with weather stress.

From an agronomic perspective, this reinforces the need for flexibility in decision-making and a willingness to adapt as conditions change.

How soil management supports resilience

Soil is central to building resilience, particularly in relation to water management.

Maintaining higher levels of organic matter improves:

• Water retention during dry periods
• Drainage during wet conditions
• Soil structure and rooting depth

Well-managed soils are better able to buffer crops against extremes, helping to maintain more consistent performance across variable seasons.

Does investment in drainage pay?

Investment decisions can play a significant role in resilience.

In one example discussed, two comparable 300ha farms experienced a one tonne per hectare yield difference following a wet autumn. The key difference was long-term investment in drainage.

This translated to a £48,000 income difference in a single season, highlighting how infrastructure investment can directly influence financial performance.

While capital investment is not always possible, particularly in challenging financial periods, these decisions can be assessed over a longer time horizon.

How should growers approach crop and variety choice?

As conditions become less predictable, crop and variety selection becomes more of a risk management decision.

Key considerations include:

• Ability to cope with dry springs or wet establishment conditions
• Rooting characteristics and resilience under stress
• Suitability for specific soil types

This is where agronomy advice plays a key role in matching crop choice to likely conditions and farm capability.

What role does data and modelling play?

Advances in modelling are improving the ability to assess future scenarios.

Work carried out by the James Hutton Institute is enabling crop performance to be modelled across the UK at a 1km resolution, with the ambition to move to field-level analysis.

This allows growers to explore “what if” scenarios, such as changes in climate, inputs or management, and understand the potential impact on performance.

Combined with on-farm data and agronomy expertise, these tools can support more informed long-term decisions.

What does resilience mean for the farm business?

Resilience extends beyond agronomy.

It includes:

• Financial resilience and the ability to absorb shocks
• Flexibility in systems and cropping
• Access to infrastructure and supply chains
• Willingness to adapt and change approach

One of the key risks identified is the potential for back-to-back challenging seasons, which can put significant pressure on farm businesses.

Planning for these scenarios is becoming increasingly important.

Where should farmers start?

Building resilience does not require a complete system change overnight.

Practical starting points include:

• Reviewing soil management and organic matter levels
• Assessing drainage and water management capability
• Considering variety and crop choices based on risk
• Taking a longer-term view on investment decisions

Equally important is maintaining open discussion within the business and with advisers. Understanding risks and exploring options collectively helps support better decision-making.

What this means on farm

Resilience is not a single action. It is a combination of decisions that improve the ability of the farm to cope with variability.

By focusing on soil, infrastructure, crop choice and informed planning, growers can reduce risk while maintaining productivity.

As conditions continue to change, the ability to adapt will become increasingly important to long-term success.